Artificial intelligence is often discussed in reassuring terms.
A common narrative is that AI will help engineers become more productive, but that the underlying demand for software developers will remain largely unchanged.
I suspect the reality may be more disruptive.
My personal view is that AI is unlikely to eliminate the need for great engineers.
However, it is likely to reduce the total number of engineers many companies require.
In other words, engineering teams may become smaller, while the value of exceptional engineers increases.
Productivity Changes Team Economics
Software development has historically been labour-intensive.
Larger ambitions often required larger teams. More features meant more engineers.
AI has the potential to change that equation.
As tools improve, engineers will be able to write code faster, generate tests, analyse systems, and automate routine tasks that previously consumed significant time.
The result is that smaller teams may be able to deliver what once required much larger groups.
That has significant implications for hiring.
Great Engineers Become More Valuable
If AI reduces the amount of routine work, the remaining human contribution becomes more important.
Architecture, judgment, prioritisation, and business understanding will carry greater weight.
The engineers who can think strategically, design robust systems, and make sound technical decisions are likely to become even more valuable.
These are precisely the qualities that are hardest to automate.
The Gap Between Exceptional and Average Talent
One likely consequence of AI is a widening gap between top performers and everyone else.
Highly capable engineers will be able to use AI as a force multiplier, dramatically increasing their output and impact.
More average engineers may find that some of the work they previously performed is increasingly automated.
This does not mean engineering careers will disappear.
It does mean that the market may become more selective.
Fewer Engineers, Higher Expectations
Companies will still need talented software engineers.
But they may need fewer of them.
Teams that once required twenty engineers may eventually be able to achieve similar outcomes with ten highly effective engineers supported by advanced AI tools.
That would raise expectations around technical depth, adaptability, and commercial awareness.
What This Means for Hiring
For employers, the focus may shift from building large teams to identifying smaller numbers of highly capable engineers.
For engineers, the emphasis will increasingly be on judgment, architecture, leadership, and the ability to work effectively with AI.
For recruiters, understanding these changes will become essential.
A Structural Shift, Not a Temporary Trend
Artificial intelligence is unlikely to be a passing productivity tool.
It has the potential to reshape how software is built and how engineering teams are structured.
The best engineers will remain indispensable.
But over time, many companies may discover that they need fewer engineers overall.
That may be uncomfortable to acknowledge, but it is a possibility worth taking seriously.